虚拟时空-天涯学子网讯：
Chinese meteorologists have said the La Ni?a weather phenomenon contributed to the extreme snowfalls that have killed at least 60 people and paralysed large parts of the country's transport network ahead of next week's lunar new year holiday.
Dong Wenjie, of the Beijing Climate Centre, told Chinese media that “the La Ni?a weather will last until the summer of 2008, with a medium to strong intensity”.
The severe winter conditions have left millions of Chinese trying to travel home for the holiday stranded at railway stations and other transport hubs. The weather has also accelerated food inflation because of the damage caused to winter crops such as rapeseed and wheat. Spiralling food prices have already triggered stampedes at supermarkets for discounted goods.
La Ni?a is a cyclical global weather pattern that has been linked to weather disruptions ranging from hurricanes in the Atlantic to flooding in Africa and South Asia last year.
There are “diverging views” among weather experts over the Chinese winter and its link to La Ni?a, according Rupakumar Kolli, chief of the world climate applications and services division of the World Meteorological Organisation.
“La Ni?a cold weather in eastern Asia is a textbook-style expectation,” he said. “But when we try to attribute the weather conditions of the past couple of weeks to La Ni?a, one cannot prove anything definitely. At this moment, we cannot support any argument with reasonable confidence.”
Pierre Eckert, a Swiss climate change expert, said: “The correlation between La Ni?a and China is certainly possible. But it's wrong to draw any conclusions from a very short period. That would require another 10 very cold winters.”
CM Cheng, senior scientific officer at the Hong Kong observatory, said the cold weather was “pretty similar to the situation in January 2004”, when cold air from Siberia hit the territory and parts of the mainland.
But the recent extreme weather in China is not alone in being attributed to La Ni?a. The phenomenon has also been blamed by weather officials for flooding in Australia, one of the largest commodity exporters to China. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been lost in revenues because of extensive flooding last month in Queensland, which made BHP Billiton and other companies declare “force majeure” at coal mines.
中国气象学家表示，拉尼娜(La Nina)现象是近期中国出现极端暴雪天气的部分原因。这场雪灾已导致至少60人丧生，并在农历新年将于下周到来之际，造成中国交通网络大面积瘫痪。
中国国家气候中心主任董文杰对国内媒体表示，“此次拉尼娜事件将至少持续到2008年夏季之前，强度达到中等或者偏强”。
严寒暴雪天气使数以百万计急于返乡过年的中国旅客滞留于火车站和其它交通枢纽。恶劣天气还损坏了油菜籽和小麦等冬季农作物，从而加快了食品价格通胀。螺旋式上升的食品价格，已引发了在超市抢购减价商品的人潮。
拉尼娜现象是一种周期性的全球天气现象，被认为与多种反常天气有关，从大西洋的飓风，到非洲和南亚去年的洪水泛滥。
世界气象组织(World Meteorological Organisation)世界气候应用与服务部门主任鲁帕库马•科利(Rupakumar Kolli)称，气象专家们对于中国今年的冬季天气及其与拉尼娜现象的关系有“不同看法”。
“拉尼娜现象在亚洲东部带来寒冷气候，是一种教科书式的预期，”他说。“但是，当我们试图把过去两周的天气状况归咎于拉尼娜现象的时候，我们无法肯定地证实任何说法。目前，我们无法以合理信心支持任何主张。”
瑞士气候变化专家皮埃尔•埃克特(Pierre Eckert)表示：“拉尼娜现象与中国近期天气之间存在关联当然是有可能的。但从很短一段时间的现象得出结论是不对的。要想得出这个结论，需要再来10个异常寒冷的冬天。”
香港天文台高级科学主任郑楚明表示，此次严寒天气“与2004年1月的情况颇为相似”——当时，来自西伯利亚的冷空气影响了内地大片地区和香港。
但中国近期的极端天气状况，还不是唯一被归因于拉尼娜现象的反常天气。气象官员称，拉尼娜现象还造成澳大利亚的洪灾。澳大利亚是中国最大的大宗商品进口来源之一。上月在昆士兰州(Queensland)发生的大面积洪灾，使企业损失数亿美元的收入，导致必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和其它公司宣布其煤矿遭遇“不可抗力事件”。
拉斐尔•曼代(Raphael Minder)香港、彼得•史密斯(Peter Smith)悉尼、马利德(Richard McGregor)北京报道。
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